Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.059811 0.067665 0.075801 0.084832 0.094545 0.104652 0.115937
2025-02-16 0.043063 0.054082 0.066247 0.080537 0.096727 0.114372 0.134928
2025-02-23 0.035500 0.048889 0.064498 0.083692 0.106321 0.131838 0.162472
2025-03-02 0.030014 0.045007 0.063359 0.086827 0.115415 0.148535 0.189228
2025-03-09 0.023648 0.038919 0.058603 0.084793 0.117733 0.156883 0.206027
2025-03-16 0.018429 0.033443 0.053842 0.082049 0.118605 0.163077 0.219975
2025-03-23 0.016272 0.031867 0.053918 0.085277 0.126786 0.178103 0.244612
2025-03-30 0.014123 0.029942 0.053231 0.087273 0.133253 0.190964 0.266657
2025-04-06 0.012602 0.028743 0.053383 0.090274 0.140965 0.205397 0.290745
2025-04-13 0.010575 0.026372 0.051551 0.090298 0.144581 0.214549 0.308237
2025-04-20 0.010211 0.026826 0.053968 0.096380 0.156425 0.234404 0.339422
2025-04-27 0.008360 0.024259 0.051444 0.095110 0.158098 0.240981 0.353723
2025-05-04 0.007109 0.022703 0.050529 0.096347 0.163538 0.252970 0.375666
2025-05-11 0.005680 0.020487 0.048329 0.095539 0.166101 0.261249 0.393053
2025-05-18 0.005306 0.020516 0.049955 0.100665 0.177221 0.281152 0.425841
2025-05-25 0.004841 0.020237 0.050988 0.104856 0.187044 0.299411 0.456653
2025-06-01 0.003710 0.017995 0.048232 0.102806 0.187619 0.304995 0.470702
2025-06-08 0.002699 0.015677 0.045034 0.099787 0.186569 0.308221 0.481550
2025-06-15 0.002434 0.015466 0.045891 0.103498 0.195615 0.325484 0.511272
2025-06-22 0.002088 0.014879 0.045925 0.105781 0.202511 0.339802 0.537146
2025-06-29 0.001862 0.014629 0.046618 0.109192 0.211159 0.356648 0.566551
2025-07-06 0.001458 0.013534 0.045412 0.109223 0.214572 0.366122 0.586027
2025-07-13 0.001485 0.014196 0.048059 0.116110 0.228706 0.390905 0.626486